Nepal’s costly embrace of China

Developing Nepal as a ‘bridge’ between two Asian giants was a promising proposal. The China-India-Nepal trilateral cooperation idea sparked hope that the country of 30 million would prosper side by side with its two neighbors. The two would complement each other in developing critical connectivity infrastructure to turn Nepal not just into a transport corridor but also an urbanizing economic conduit. That boundless potential of Nepal is being eroded by the ruling party’s disoriented foreign policy.

India was never interested in the trilateral idea that could possibly end its hegemony in Nepal. Against this backdrop, rather than trying to keep convincing India to get more interested in the idea, Nepal constantly pushed the southern neighbor away.

Egged on by our own government, China is now interested in all Nepali sectors, from hydropower to military. The military cooperation has not amounted to much except adding India’s suspicion of the trilateral idea—to Nepal’s great loss.  

Nepal cannot prosper without a healthy and balanced relationship with both its neighbors. However, India remains a destination of choice for those unfortunate Nepalis who can’t dream of going to Middle East by paying huge sums to state-sponsored ‘man-power’ companies.

India’s public health institutions such as the All India Institutes of Medical Sciences in New Delhi and the Christian Medical College in Vellore still lure Nepalis who cannot get good treatment in their own country whose health sector has been captured by the mafia. Kathmandu’s failure to take New Delhi into confidence could cost those poor Nepali people who rely on India to meet their vital needs like healthcare.

Nepal’s relationship with China is no cushion for poor Nepali people. China only serves the interests of its elite. Moreover, Beijing looks at Nepal from the Tibetan lens. A security-centric approach does Nepal no good at a time it needs unconditional foreign direct investment.

China’s Communist Party (CPC) is enthusiastic about distributing Mao’s red books in Nepal but struggles to define what the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) means for Nepal. Chinese diplomats in Kathmandu openly threaten our constitutionally guaranteed press freedom. Yet they don’t seem to understand the urgent need of the Nepali people to become economically empowered so that they won’t have to wash dishes in the dhabas dotting Indian highways.

Around three million Nepalis work in India to secure two daily meals for their families back home. Nepali unskilled laborers have an open access to India’s vast markets. As India is becoming more competitive and professional, Nepal can benefit more and more from this relationship. Suppose India is tomorrow a global economic superpower and Nepal still has an open border with it—what great opportunities such a scenario bring! But for that Kathmandu has to tame its anti-India ultra-nationalism.

If the future is Asian, as Parag Khanna claims, it is as much of India as it is of China. Nepal can benefit a lot from a balanced foreign policy by pursuing trilateral cooperation rather than stand-alone relationship with neighbors. Even if this is not possible, the goal should be to carefully balance India and China, and surely not to completely throw our lot with the Middle Kingdom.

Please do not destabilize the country with a flawed foreign policy approach at the cost of the poor. India’s treatment of Nepal as just another country may have no implications for Kathmandu’s power elites but will result in devastating consequences for poor Nepalis who can’t ever think of working in Beijing’s restaurants, even as dishwashers.

This article was first published in The Annapurna Express. 

On wrong track

First published in Republica Daily

Nepal-China-India
Last January, the Department of Industry (DoI) released updated statistics showing that China had overtaken India to become the largest contributor of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Nepal over the previous six months. Does this increased FDI inflow from China mean anything at all, or is it just another statistic? Is it time for Nepal to rethink its economic and political ties with its two giant neighbors?
Yes, we believe this is the right time.
It is naïve to believe that China and India are interested in a prosperous and stable Nepal. The only thing they care about is their interests, whether security-related or geostrategic. The idea of being a ‘vibrant bridge’ between the two rising economies seems a distant fantasy, since Nepal can neither bring them to a common table, nor are they interested in any such mechanism.
Traditionally, compared to China, Nepal has been much closer to India. But Nepal needs to revisit at least the last few decades and evaluate what it gained by being closer to India. Nothing!
If Nepal wants to speed up its economic development by attracting FDI from both China and India, first it has to maintain ‘equi-proximity’ with the two neighbors. Nepal needs to work on scientific management of its border with India, and India needs to support Nepal in the same since border issues have been a major problem for both the countries.
The establishments of China and India are not very interested in dealing with Nepal and acknowledging it as a partner in development. Rather, both of them are inclined to deal with Nepal through their intelligence agencies and bureaucracy. Nepal has to understand this and be firm in dealing with its neighbor with clarity and respect. This is also the reason Nepal should maintain an organized border with India.
It can be argued that Nepal has gained a lot from the open border, but it has also lost a lot. In bilateral talks, Indian officials use issues of illegal re-export of beetle nuts and Chinese umbrella to Indian market to bully Nepali government officials. It is reported that Nepali businessmen import lentils from India and re-export to Bangladesh. Officials at Indian Embassy in Kathmandu try to humiliate Nepali officials for letting businessmen carry out these illegal imports, but do not take action against Indian businessmen who export those lentils illegally in the first place.
The South Block does not hesitate to deploy officials in its Kathmandu embassy to deal with journalists, opinion makers, and of course, businessmen and political cadres. Officials at the Indian Embassy allegedly distribute money from their drawers. But their beneficiaries would rather cover their eyes than admit this dirty truth.
Coming to China, it does not seem interested in dealing with Nepal as a special case and as a neighbor. Rather, it puts Nepal in the basket of ‘least developed countries’ along with many African countries. A good example is China’s decision to provide zero-tariff facility to 7,787 goods and services from all LDCs. China does not give any special treatment to Nepali goods and services—in which Nepal has comparative advantage—that it does not give to other LDCs. China is more interested in African countries to counter the West and prove its rising economic and political power in world politics.
In September 2013, Prof Wang Jisi from Peking University gave a talk in Beijing, China’s dilemma: marching West, thinking East. He mentioned India and other neighboring countries like Burma several times as he talked about China’s development, its foreign policy and neighbors, but there was no mention of Nepal. When asked about his views on Nepal, he briefly stated that Nepal is important to China because of Tibet. This shows that China and Chinese scholars are not much interested in Nepal.
Nepal neither has military strength to compete with its neighbors, nor the ability to deploy intelligence officials in Beijing, Delhi or border areas. Being a poor country between two giants, it has let itself be used by its ‘friendly neighbors’. Sometimes, they seem gentle and sometimes anything but..
Political parties should understand that the country’s future relies largely on their policies. They are the ones who should steer the country’s economy and politics.
The China-Nepal-India trilateral cooperation proposed by Nepal in 2010 has been taken very lightly in both Beijing and Delhi. That means neither country is ready to sit down with Nepal again. China and India are emerging giants in world politics. The two compete in many areas, from trade to military strength. Nepal should understand there is no space for it in the same table. It should not take any kind of action to please the southern neighbor at the cost of alienating the northern neighbor, or vice-versa.
Nepal should understand that having a scientifically organized border with India and allowing Chinese investors into Nepal without the fear of India is the only way of filling the infrastructure gaps. If Nepal allows India to build a 1,450 km highway in Tarai with its own contractors, then why not let China build a railway network in northern Nepal?
This does not mean Nepal should allow its land to be used by either power as they want. But if it wants to maintain equidistance with its neighbors, it should be more organized in dealing with India. The long relationship with India didn’t help us develop, but rather made Nepal more vulnerable, both politically and economically. Now it is time to be more professional and diplomatic with both neighbors and focus on building the country’s economy.
Poudel is a graduate student at Tsinghua University and Sapkota is a PHD candidate at Renmin University in Beijing