Road to progress

This article was first published in The Kathmandu Post, Jun 7, 2015.

In the aftermath of the April 25 earthquake, a section of people have already started discussing if Nepal would repeat the fate of Haiti and become more vulnerable and poorer in the future. But given Nepal’s geographical position, its youth population and other factors, such a bleak outlook seems improbable.

Demographic dividend

If nothing, Nepal is blessed with well-educated young generation that is well aware of the

country’s political situation, global trends and development debates. Similarly, even those

deprived of quality education are toiling hard in the Middle East. In fact, the remittance they send

back to the country is the backbone of Nepal’s economy.

What makes Nepal different from many other poor countries is that it has a vocal civil society, a

politically-aware young generation, a pushy media, and vibrant public debates on subjects

ranging from governance to feminism. Nepal has two ambitious neighbours that support it and

the goodwill multiple countries, including Japan, the UK, and the US. The only thing that seems

to be largely missing is a coordinated, consistent and visionary political leadership and an efficient

bureaucracy.

Additionally, Nepal’s unique geographical position could prove to be lucrative for the country’s economy. Both its neighbours, China and India, aspire to become world leaders, and it is not in their favour to let their immediate neighbour remain poor. This is the opportunity that Nepal needs to tap.

Geographic dividend

India and China were active in  rescue and relief efforts in Nepal. This effort, it is believed, will

continue throughout the long-term reconstruction process as well. Even the lingering doubt of

whether China and India would work together in Nepal was clarified when Indian Prime Minister

Narendra Modi made it explicit in his speech at Tsinghua University in Beijing, during his recent

visit to China, that Nepal would be their common priority. The Asian Infrastructure Investment

Bank (AIIB), which is likely to come into operation soon, has China and India as its largest

stakeholders. Right after the quake hit Nepal, damaging more than one-third of the country’s

GDP and taking more than 8,000 lives, a section of policymakers and development activists in

Asia started arguing that the AIIB should launch its first development project in Nepal. This could

indeed be possible given that the two largest shareholders of the bank are well aware about the

dire need for reconstruction in Nepal.

If Indian and Chinese leaderships are serious about pursuing an Asian Century, they cannot let

countries like Nepal remain poor. Though India might still have some misgivings about Chinese

investment in Nepal, it should realise that Indian foreign direct investment alone will not be

adequate for Nepal’s infrastructure development at this point.    

Similarly, Japan’s Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has announced that his government and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) would together provide $110 billion in the next five years for ‘innovative’ infrastructure development in Asia. Although this has a lot to do with the China-Japan rivalry, Nepal should be able to use this rivalry between the two Asian powers for its own benefit. Both the ADB and Japan have already invested in Nepal’s infrastructure development, including hydropower projects. This investment should be diversified to other sectors as well. Similarly, assistance from European countries for social development and education will certainly go up in the coming days

Plan to succeed

The Nepali government has already announced that it will host an international donor’s

conference to collect funds worth around $2 billion for long-term reconstruction projects. During

the conference, the government should be able to come up with a sound plan. Further, the Nepali

government should coordinate with all the major stakeholders, countries such as China, India,

Japan, the UK and the US and different development agencies.

If Nepal does aim to become a shining example in the future, it has to be a place where young

Nepali people who have been forced to labour in the Middle East can return and make a fortune

in their own country. Nepal has the opportunity to become a successful example in the world, a

thriving economy, by utilising this crisis and its geographical location to its own benefit.

It is easy to be pessimistic when an unimaginable disaster hits the country, but every crisis should be a learning opportunity for us to move forward. This is the time to rebuild our country in such a way that our next generation will not have to live in the fear of another devastating earthquake.

What matters the most at this moment is how much sincerity Nepal’s political leadership can display and how well they can coordinate with each other and lead the country. The extent to which China, India and other development partners demonstrate their interest in helping Nepal rebuild its infrastructure and enhancing the capacity of its institutions will also matter.

Most of all, it is the responsibility of the Nepali leadership to work together with the Nepali youth to build the nation.

Poudel is a researcher at ThinkIN China, an academic community in Beijing