Starting anew

First published in Republica Daily 

THIRD BIMSTEC SUMMIT

In July 2000 the then foreign minister Chakra Prasad Bastola wrote a letter expressing an interest on full membership of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC). After four years, Nepal formally joined BIMSTEC in February 2004 and attended its first summit in Bangkok in a delegation led by the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba. After a decade, Prime Minister Sushil Koirala is leading the Nepali delegation to third BIMSTEC summit being held in Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar from March 1 to 4.
In last decade, many of the country’s social, political and economic realities have changed, including the major shift from monarchy to republic. The then rebel force has joined mainstream politics. Many smaller changes have also been witnessed in different areas. But unfortunately, we have not been able to make significant changes in international trade, or bilateral relationships with our trade partners and regional stakeholders.
Sushil Koirala is the second prime minister post-1990 who is making his first foreign visit to a South East Asian country, as opposed to the past precedent of making the first visit as PM to India. This may not bother other stakeholders in the region or in international community, except India. As an aside to the summit, Koirala will have a sideline meeting with his Indian counterpart Manmohan Singh. A man of principles and simplicity, Koirala should be utilizing this forum to give a message that Nepal is ready to move forward with multilateral and bilateral trade and investment pacts with any country in the region.
In December 2006, Ministry of Industry Commerce and Supplies and South Asia Watch on Trade, Economics and Environment (SAWTEE) jointly organized a roundtable on BIMSTEC and South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). The opinions expressed in that roundtable are interesting, not because officials and experts underlined the importance of India for Nepal’s international trade, but because they outlined the country’s membership in different regional agreements as strategies to avoid overreliance on India (and disastrous consequences like the 1989 economic blockage). BIMSTEC is not always efficient in executing its action plans, but it is nonetheless a crucial forum for a country like Nepal to establish closer ties with the likes of Myanmar, Thailand, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka. Just like Nepal, all these countries are going through painful political transitions and witnessing interventions from different powers.
Most BIMSTEC countries are going through several problems. Nepal, Bangladesh and Myanmar are low income countries whereas Sri Lanka, Bhutan and India are lower-middle income countries. Thailand is the only one upper-middle income country as per World Bank classification. However, the similarities among these countries are vast and can be exploited for cooperation. At the same time, these countries are also competitors in terms of attracting foreign investors for development.
The political leadership has to keep in mind that such forums are not just meant to sign agreements. International investors and strategic decision makers are closely watching the upcoming summit. China is not a member of BIMSTEC but it has been showing an increasing interest in BIMSTEC since India is not only engaging itself more and more in South Asia but also coming to Myanmar, which China may not like. Nepal’s trade, no matter what, is going to be concentrated on India, but it can open up a way for sharing investment and flow of people with other countries. For instance, a delegation of Nepali businesspeople went to Myanmar in 2013 to explore the possibility of attracting religious tourists to Nepal. There are many Buddhists in Myanmar who would like to visit Lumbini, the birthplace of Gautam Buddha, as a pilgrimage.
Koirala’s visit is an opportunity to show that Nepal is moving towards political stability and economic prosperity. A country’s confidence does not come just from having a big GDP; it is also about leadership in such forums. Koirala should not make the mistake former Prime Minister Pushpa Kamal Dahal made in 2008 while attending the second BIMSTEC summit in Delhi. He was acting more like an Indian guest at the forum without putting much effort in building relationship with other stakeholders at the forum. In comparison to Dahal, Koirala has been more evenhanded in dealing with India in the past.
BIMSTEC has a total of 14 priority sectors which are led by different member countries. Among them Nepal leads the area of Poverty Alleviation. Given this, Nepal has to show strong leadership by bringing together all member countries in the topic it heads. The ‘poverty plan of action (PPA)’ endorsed by the second Ministerial Meeting of BIMSTEC in Kathmandu in 2012 should be taken seriously as large populations in each country are still under extreme poverty.
Chakra Prasad Bastola, who put such an effort on gaining Nepal full BIMSTEC membership, is now in a coma. His leader Koirala has become the prime minister in a difficult situation and is aiming to complete a constitution through the second Constitution Assembly (CA). The leadership definitely has to accomplish the targeted task but at the same time should be responsible in building positive image of the country in international forums. A good trade and investment relationship with all member countries of BIMSTEC should be considered seriously.
It is as yet unknown how efficient this forum can be in advancing free trade in the region. Nepal’s trade with member countries except India is minimal, which is not surprising. The trade zone can be a forum mainly for investment and tourism promotion, in case of Nepal.
Myanmar, where the summit is taking place, is itself looking for foreign investment, and China and the US both are equally interested in investing there. Not only that, the US keenness in Myanmar has become a reason for China’s fear. Similarly, Nepal is a country where China and India are both interested to invest but neither is in a mood to take any step that can cause suspicion for the other. Nepal and Myanmar can likewise share their experience about dealing with economic powerhouses.
Lastly, Koirala’s visit is going to be a test of his leadership within the country as well. He has no room to fail. Domestic politics and regional dimension should both be handled with care to show he is not only a man of principles but also a statesman. His long political journey will be rewarded if he can send the message that he is not just pretending to lead, but stands on strong ground of morality, principles and people’s faith. Koirala has to step up and make this visit a landmark for the country’s future. Let’s hope it will not be a repetition of Deuba’s Bangkok flight.