Despite a steady fall in the rate of Chinese economic growth over the past two years, Official GDP statistics continue to suggest current growth of over 8%.

Based on both private sector (IPSOS and Nielsen) and official Consumer Confidence surveys, six out of the seven most recent assessments of consumer views suggest continuing confidence in the Chinese economy. This is consistent with the latest retail sales data, which shows that Chinese consumers’ expenditure continues to increase at a rapid rate.

Both the World Economics ‘Li Keqiang’ and The Conference Board Leading Indicators also continue to reflect significant growth in the Chinese economy. In addition, ‘hard’ statistics for Electricity, Industrial Output, Cement and Steel production suggest that the Chinese economy is growing strongly again in the region of 5-10%.

The only indicator showing a declining trend is the OECD Composite Leading Indicator which has dipped under its long term average.

World Economics believes the official Q1 2012 8.1% growth rate to be in line with the most recent available data as compiled in this dossier.